Surprise Move In Today's Mortgage Rates 3-10-2017

By James Brooks

The bond market is up 7/32 (2.58%), we should see a slight improvement in today's rates by .125 of a discount point.

Yesterday?s 30-year Bond auction went fairly well, but not as strong as Wednesday?s 10-year Note sale. Bond prices lost ground during afternoon trading yesterday, causing some lenders to review rates upward before closing. I don?t believe that selling was a result of the auction. It is more likely that traders were still concerned about today's key economic data.

Today?s big news was February?s Employment report at 8:30 AM ET. It revealed that the unemployment rate slipped 0.1% last month, now standing at 4.7%. The average earnings reading came in with a 0.2% increase. Both of these readings matched forecasts and have not had too much influence on today?s markets.

The not so favorable news came in the payroll number that showed 235,000 new jobs were added to the economy last month. This was higher than the 200,000 that was expected, which by itself is bad news for bonds and mortgage rates. However, it appears that market participants were actually expecting a higher number than printed forecasts after Wednesday?s ADP release showed a significant spike in private sector jobs. In other words, the 235,000 beat forecasts, but traders had built in a higher number. We can call today's positive reaction a relief rally, fueled by the fact that the payroll number was not higher than it was.

I would not be surprised to see some swings in the major stock indexes and bond prices throughout the day today. This could lead to an intraday revision to mortgage pricing, although it likely would be a minor change. Next week is packed with economic data and mortgage-relevant events. There is something of interest set for every day except Monday with Wednesday being the key day of the week due to a couple of important economic reports, followed by an afternoon of Fed events.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now.

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