No Change In Today's Mortgage Rates 7-5-2017

By James Brooks

The bond market up 1/32 (2.33%), which schould keep Raleigh area mortgage rates unchanged.

This morning's sole piece of relevant economic data was May's Factory Orders at 10:00 AM ET. The Commerce Department announced a 0.8% decline in new orders at U.S. factories. This was a larger decline than forecasts were calling for, making the data good news for bonds and mortgage rates.

Later today, we will also get the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. There is a possibility of the markets reacting to them following their 2:00 PM ET release. I don't believe that they will reveal anything surprising from the last FOMC meeting. Still, market participants will be looking for any indication of when the Fed will make their next rate increase that is currently expected sometime this year. The minutes will tell us how members voted for related motions and could cause more volatility in the markets if there is anything unexpected in them.

Tomorrow brings us the release of two early morning releases that may affect mortgage rates. The first is June's ADP Employment report at 8:15 AM ET. It has the potential to cause some movement in the markets if it shows much stronger or weaker numbers. This report tracks changes in private-sector jobs of the company's clients that use them for payroll processing. While it does draw attention, it is my opinion that it is overrated and is not a true reflection of the broader employment picture. It also is not very accurate in predicting results of the monthly government report that follows a couple days later. Still, because we sometimes see a noticeable reaction to the report, it is on this week's calendar. It is expected to show 185,000 new payrolls. Ideally, the bond market would prefer to see a much smaller increase.

The second will be last week’s unemployment figures at 8:30 AM ET. They are expected to show that 240,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week, unchanged from the previous week’s initial claims. Since rising claims hints at employment sector weakness, the higher the number the better the news it is for mortgage rates. However, because this is only a weekly report, it likely will have little impact on tomorrow’s mortgage rates unless it shows a significant variance.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now.

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