Mortgage Rate News 11-27-2017
By James Brooks
The bond market is unchanged from Friday?s early close (2.34%), which should keep Raleigh area mortgage rates at Friday?s levels.
The week started with a relatively minor economic release late this morning. The Commerce Department gave us October's New Home Sales data at 10:00 AM ET, announcing a 6.2% rise in sales of newly constructed homes. This was much stronger than expected and pushed sales to their highest level since October 2007. The unexpected rise indicates the new home portion of the housing sector was stronger than many had thought. That makes the data bad news for bonds and mortgage rates.
In addition to this week's five more economic reports, there are two relatively important Treasury auctions that may also influence bond trading enough to affect mortgage rates. There will be an auction of 5-year Treasury Notes today and 7-year Notes tomorrow. Neither of these sales will directly impact mortgage pricing, but they can influence general bond market sentiment. If the sales go poorly, we could see broader selling in the bond market that leads to upward revisions in mortgage rates. However, strong investor demand usually makes bonds more attractive to investors and brings more funds into the bond market. The buying of bonds that follows often translates into lower mortgage rates. Results of the sales will be posted at 1:00 PM ET both days. Any reaction to the sales will come shortly after results are posted.
November's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) will be released at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow morning by the Conference Board. This index helps us track consumer willingness to spend. If a consumer's confidence in their own financial and employment situation is strong, analysts believe that they are more apt to make larger purchases, fueling economic growth. This is important because consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy and strength in it makes long-term securities such as mortgage-related bonds less attractive to investors. Analysts are expecting to see decline in confidence from last month's level, meaning surveyed consumers were less optimistic about their own financial situations this month than they were last month. A weaker reading than the 124.0 that is expected would be good news for mortgage rates, while a stronger reading could push mortgage rates higher Tuesday.
Overall, Wednesday is the best candidate for most active day because there are two economic releases along with Fed Chair Yellen?s congressional testimony, but Friday may be a busy day also due to the ISM manufacturing report. I believe it is a safe assumption that we will see movement in rates most, if not all, days this week. Because of the busy calendar, it would be extremely prudent to maintain contact with your mortgage professional if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now.