More Good News For Mortgage Rates 4-4-2017
By James Brooks
The bond market is up 4/32 (2.36%),we should see an improvement in today's mortgage rates of approximately .125 of a discount point.
Today?s only relevant economic data was February's Factory Orders report at 10:00 AM ET. The Commerce Department announced a 1.0% rise in new orders for both durable and non-durable goods. This was slightly higher than the 0.9% increase that was expected, but is not the cause of today's bond weakness. This data is considered to be moderately important to the markets and the variance from forecasts was not enough to cause a reaction.
Tomorrow has an early morning and an afternoon release that we need to watch. The ADP Employment report is set for release at 8:15 AM ET tomorrow morning, which has the potential to cause some movement in the markets if it shows much stronger or weaker numbers. This report tracks changes in private-sector jobs of ADP's clients that use them for payroll processing. While it does draw attention, it is my opinion that it is overrated and is not a true reflection of the broader employment picture. It also is not accurate in predicting results of the monthly government report that usually follows a couple days later. Still, because we could see at least a moderate reaction to the results, we will be watching it. Analysts are expecting it to show that 175,000 new payrolls were added. The lower the number of jobs, the better the news it is for mortgage rates.
The minutes from the last FOMC meeting will be released during afternoon trading tomorrow. Market participants will be looking at them closely as they give us insight to the Fed's current thought process and individual Fed member opinions. Any surprises in the 2:00 PM ET release, particularly about inflation, economic conditions or when the next rate hike will take place, could cause afternoon volatility in the markets and possible changes in mortgage pricing tomorrow afternoon.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now.