By James Brooks
The bond market is up 2/32 (2.20%), which because of strength late yesterday should improve today's mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point.
There are no relevant economic reports being released this morning. Today?s only event that has the potential to affect mortgage rates is the Federal Reserve's Beige Book. This report, which is named simply after the color of its cover, details economic conditions throughout the U.S. by Federal Reserve region. It is relied upon heavily by the Fed to determine monetary policy during their FOMC meetings. If it shows surprisingly softer economic activity since the last report, the bond market may thrive and mortgage rates could drop shortly after the 2:00 PM ET release. If it reveals signs of inflation growing or rapidly expanding economic activity in many regions, we could see mortgage rates revise higher this afternoon.
There are three reports coming tomorrow morning that could affect mortgage...
By James Brooks
The bond market is up 7/32 (2.22%), which should improve today's mortgage rates by .125 of a discount point.
This morning brought us two pieces of economic data, starting with April's Personal Income and Outlays data at 8:30 AM ET. The Commerce Department announced a 0.4% rise in both income and spending, matching expectations. Both readings are moderate increases in data that the bond market prefers to see weaker numbers. And an inflation component in the data showed a slightly stronger reading than predicted. However, the impact it has had on this morning?s mortgage rates has been minimal.
The Conference Board posted their Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) at 10:00 AM ET this morning. It gave us good news with a reading of 117.9 for May that fell short of the 119.5 that was forecasted. It was also a decline from April?s revised 119.4. Today?s numbers indicate that consumer confidence was weaker than thought during May and April. Since waning confidence...
By James Brooks
The bond market is up 1/32 (2.25%), which should keep today's mortgage rates unchanged.
There were three pieces of economic data released this morning. One was the first revision to the 1st quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at 8:30 AM ET. It showed that the economy grew at a 1.2% annual rate during the first three months of the year. That was higher than the previous estimate of 0.7% and stronger than the 0.8% that was expected. This is an important number because it shows that the economy was actually, quite a bit stronger during the first part of the year than many had thought. Because bonds tend to thrive in weaker economic conditions, this is bad news for mortgage rates.
April's Durable Goods Orders was also posted at 8:30 AM. The Commerce Department announced a 0.7% decline in new orders for big-ticket products last month. That headline number was stronger than the 1.8% decline that was expected. However, this data is known to be quite volatile,...
By James Brooks
The bond market is unchanged (2.25%), which we keep today's mortgage rates unchanged.
We saw bonds improve yesterday afternoon following two favorable events. First, the 5-year Treasury Note sale was very well with several benchmarks pointing towards a strong demand for the securities. That allows us to be optimistic about today?s 7-year Note auction. If it is also well received, we could see bonds improve again this afternoon, possibly leading to a slight improvement in mortgage pricing. Results will be posted at 1:00 PM ET, so any reaction will come during early afternoon trading.
Also late yesterday was the release of the minutes from this month?s FOMC meeting. They didn?t reveal many surprises, especially on key topics such as when they may make their next increase to key short-term interest rates. However, the bond market responded well to discussion about the Fed?s balance sheet and their intentions regarding reducing their holdings. `It appears that the...
According to the latest report from the US Census Bureau, more Americans chose purchasing a home over signing a lease to rent in the first quarter of 2017. This marks the first time since 2006 that the number of new homeowner households outpaced the number of new renter households.
Of the 1.22 million new households that were formed in the first quarter, 854,000 were new-owner households making the jump straight to homeownership rather than renting first.
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By James Brooks
The bond market is down 3/32 (2.29%), we should see an increase in today's mortgage rates of approximately .125 of a discount point.
today's only relevant economic date came from the National Association of Realtors at 10:00 AM ET, who announced that home resales fell 2.3% last month. This was a larger decline than forecasts, indicating the housing sector was softer than many had thought. Because a weakening housing sector is a drag on broader economic growth, the data is good news for bonds and mortgage rates. Unfortunately, this is only a moderately important release and traders seem to be more interested in this afternoon?s release of the FOMC minutes.
Those minutes will be posted at 2:00 PM ET, so any reaction will come during mid-afternoon trading. market participants will be looking for how Fed members voted during the last meeting and any comments about inflation or concerns regarding economic growth. The goal is to form opinions about the Fed's next move...