By James Brooks
The bond market is currently up 6/32 (2.39%), which should improve today's mortgage rates by .125 of a discount point.
February's Personal Income & Outlays report was the first of today's two economic reports. The Commerce Department announced a 0.4% increase in income and a 0.1% rise in spending. The income reading pegged expectations while the spending was slightly lower than the 0.2% that was forecasted. The data indicates that consumers had more money to spend last month than they did in January but actually spent less than many had thought. Because consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy and bonds tend to thrive in weaker economic conditions, we can consider the data slightly favorable to bonds and mortgage rates.
The second report March?s revised Consumer Sentiment Index from the University of Michigan. It came in at 96.9, short of the 97.6 preliminary reading that was posted earlier this month. The decline means fewer...
By James Brooks
The bond market is currently down 1/32 (2.40%), which should keep today's mortgage rates unchanged.
Yesterday?s 7-year Treasury Note auction went very well with the indicators pointing towards a pretty strong level of investor interest. Bonds didn?t have a significant reaction to the news, but we did see many lenders make a downward revision to their pricing shortly after results were posted.
today's minor economic releases gave us mixed results. The second revision to the 4th Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) showed the economy grew at a 2.1% annual pace, a little higher than the previous estimate of 1.9% and slightly above the 2.0% that was forecasted. The higher reading is bad news for bonds because it means economic activity was stronger than thought at the end of last year. That said, it really isn?t having too much of an impact on today?s mortgage rates due to the age of the data and the fact that the current quarter?s reading will be posted next...
By James Brooks
The bond market is currently up 3/32 (2.40%), but due to heavy selling yesterday afternoon, we still should see an increase in today's mortgage rates of approximately .125 of a discount point.
Yesterday?s 5-year Treasury Note auction didn?t go wonderfully but wasn?t too bad either. The benchmarks we use to gauge investor demand showed an average level of interest in the securities. The bond market selling came in two batches but they did not coincide with the results of the auction being posted. Therefore, we cannot blame it on the sale. However, the results don?t give us too much to be optimistic about in today?s 7-year Note auction. Its results will be posted at 1:00 PM ET, so any reaction will come during early afternoon trading. A strong demand in the securities would be good news for the broader bond market and mortgage rates.
There is no relevant economic data scheduled for release today. News from overseas that Britain has officially started the process...
By James Brooks
The bond market is down 1/32 (2.39%), which should keep today's mortgage rates unchanged.
March?s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) was today?s only relevant economic data, coming at 10:00 AM ET. The Conference Board announced a reading of 125.6 that greatly exceeded expectations of 113.3. It was an increase from February?s revised 116.1 and was the highest reading since December 2000. That indicates consumers were much more confident in their own financial situations than many had expected. Since rising confidence usually translates into stronger levels of consumer spending, this is clearly bad news for bonds and mortgage pricing. Fortunately, the markets don?t seem to be paying too much attention this morning, limiting the impact on today?s rates.
We also have the first of this week?s two relatively important Treasury auctions taking place today. 5-year Treasury Notes will be sold today while 7-year Notes go tomorrow. Neither of these sales will directly impact mortgage pricing,...
By James Brooks
The bond market is up 16/32 (2.36%), which should improve today's mortgage rates by approximately .250 of a discount point.
There is nothing of importance set for release today. The rest of the week brings us the release of four economic reports that have the potential to move mortgage rates, but none are considered to be highly important to the markets. There also are a couple of Treasury auctions set to take place that may influence mortgage rates the middle of the week.
Tomorrow has the first report worth watching with March?s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) from the New York-based Conference Board at 10:00 AM ET. This index gives us an indication of consumers' willingness to spend. Bond traders watch this data closely because consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of our economy. If this report shows that consumer confidence in their own financial situation is falling, it would indicate that consumers are less apt to make a large purchase in the near future. If it reveals that...