Little Movement In Today's Mortgage Rates 2-7-2018

By James Brooks

The bond market is down 4/32 (2.83%), which should push Raleigh Area mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 of a discount point.

There is nothing of importance scheduled for release this morning. We do have the 10-year Treasury Note auction taking place today. If today?s sale is met with a strong demand from investors, we should see the bond market move higher during afternoon trading. However, a lackluster interest from buyers, particularly international investors, would indicate a waning appetite for longer-term U.S. securities and lead to broader bond selling. The selling in bonds would result in upward afternoon revisions to mortgage rates. Results will be posted at 1:00 PM ET, so any reaction will come during early afternoon trading.

Tomorrow's only data is last week's unemployment update at 8:30 AM ET. This report is expected to show that 234,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week, up from the previous week's 230,000. Rising initial claims are a sign of employment sector weakness, so the larger the number of claims, the better the news it is for mortgage rates. Although, because this is only a weekly reading we usually need to see a significant variance from forecasts for it to impact mortgage rates.

This week's 30-year Bond auction will take place tomorrow with results being posted at 1:00 PM ET also. As with today's sale, it could lead to afternoon swings in the bond market and mortgage rates.

We also need to watch stock movement as an indicator for bond direction. Don?t be surprised to see more volatility in the stock markets as the week progresses. Stock losses usually are beneficial to bonds and mortgage rates. On the other hand, if the major stock indexes continue to recover this week?s early losses, we may see pressure in the bond market that will make it difficult for mortgage rates to improve.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now.

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