Little Change In Mortgage Rates 9-14-2017
By James Brooks
The bond market is currently unchanged at 2.19%, which should keep Raleigh area mortgage rates at yesterday?s levels.
Neither of this morning?s economic reports gave us favorable results. The more important Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August showed a 0.4% in the overall reading and a 0.2% rise in the core data. The overall reading slightly exceeded the 0.3% increase that was expected while the core data pegged forecasts. The readings mean that inflationary pressures at the consumer level of the economy were a little stronger than expected last month, while prices without more volatile food and energy costs were not. Therefore, we can consider this data neutral to slightly negative for bonds and mortgage rates.
Also at 8:30 AM was last week?s unemployment figures that revealed 284,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This was a decline from the previous week?s 298,000 initial filings and well below the 310,000 that analysts were calling for. Because this is only a weekly report and it is possible that this data was skewed because of weather issues, it has not had much of an impact on today?s trading or mortgage pricing.
Tomorrow closes the week with three relevant economic reports, starting with highly important Retail Sales report for August at 8:30 AM ET. This Commerce Department report will give us a very important measurement of consumer spending that is extremely relevant to the markets because it makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy. Current forecasts are calling for a 0.1% increase in sales. Analysts are also calling for a 0.5% rise in sales if more volatile auto transactions are excluded. Stronger than expected sales would be considered bad news for bonds and likely lead to an increase in mortgage pricing since it would indicate economic growth.
August's Industrial Production data will be posted at 9:15 AM ET tomorrow. This report gives us a measurement of manufacturing sector strength by tracking output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities. It is considered to be moderately important, meaning the sales data will be the focus of morning trading. A 0.2% rise from July's level of output is what market participants are expecting to see. A larger increase would be negative news for bonds and mortgage rates, while a weaker than expected figure would be considered good news. However, the Retail Sales report will draw much more attention than this report.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now.