By James Brooks
The bond market is up 4/32 (2.96%), which should improve Raleigh Area mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point.
There is nothing of importance taking place today. We are seeing bonds react favorably to fairly heavy selling in stocks. Stocks are reacting to more trade war speculation as China retaliated against the U.S. latest batch of tariffs on goods from China.
The tariffs are believed to be a hurdle for the economy, restricting corporate profits and economic growth. Since stocks are usually pro-economic growth and bonds tend to thrive in weaker economic conditions, we are seeing stocks down and bonds up slightly today.
The rest of the week brings us the release of only three pieces of monthly economic data that may affect mortgage rates and none of them are considered to be highly important. This should be a much calmer week for mortgage rates than last week was. If we see a big move in mortgage rates, it likely will not...
By James Brooks
The bond market is up 7/32 (2.96%), which should improve Raleigh Area mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point.
Yesterday?s 10-year Treasury Note auction went pretty well in terms of investor interest in the securities. We can?t call it a strong auction, but a little above average is fair. The bond market had little reaction to the results once they were posted, so there was not a change to mortgage rates either. Those results allow us to be somewhat optimistic about today?s 30-year Bond sale. If it goes very well, we could see improvements in bonds and mortgage pricing later today. They will be posted at 1:00 PM ET, therefore, any reaction will come during early afternoon trading.
April's Consumer Price Index (CPI) gave us some favorable news early this morning. The overall CPI reading rose 0.2% while the more important core data that excludes more volatile food and energy prices showed a 0.1% rise. Both readings fell short of forecasts...
By James Brooks
The bond market is down 8/32 (3.00%), which should push Raleigh Area mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 of a discount point.
April's Producer Price Index (PPI) kicked off this week?s calendar at 8:30 AM ET. It showed a 0.1% rise in the overall reading and a 0.2% increase in the core data. The overall reading fell just short of the 0.2% forecast but the more important core reading that excludes more volatile food and energy costs pegged expectations. The light overall reading allows us to consider the data slightly favorable. However, because the core data showed no surprises, it has had no impact on this morning?s mortgage rates.
The second event of the day will be the 10-year Treasury Note auction that will come into play this afternoon. Results of the sale will be posted at 1:00 PM ET. If it was met with a strong demand from investors, particularly international investors, we could see bond prices rise enough during afternoon trading to cause...
By James Brooks
The bond market is down 6/32 (2.96%), which should push Raleigh Area mortgage rates to increase by approximately .125 of a discount point.
Today has nothing of importance scheduled that is likely to alter mortgage pricing. The major stock indexes being in negative ground is usually positive for bonds and mortgage rates. However, they don?t seem to be relevant this morning as the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield possibly looks to test 3.00% again in the near future. Because mortgage rates tend to track bond yields, this is a cautionary sign for mortgage shoppers who have not locked an interest rate yet.
Tomorrow brings us the release of April's Producer Price Index (PPI) at 8:30 AM ET. This index helps us track inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. If it reveals weaker than expected readings, indicating inflation is not of much concern in the manufacturing sector, we should see the bond market improve. The overall index is expected to rise...
By James Brooks
The bond market is unchanged (2.94%), which should keep in Raleigh area mortgage rates unchanged.
There is nothing of relevance set for release today. In fact, the rest of the week brings us the release of only three pieces of monthly economic data that are likely to affect mortgage rates in addition to a couple of Treasury auctions. Two of the reports are important inflation readings, but they come mid-week. Despite the small number of releases, we still could see mortgage pricing move noticeably this week.
The first events will come Wednesday when April's Producer Price Index (PPI) is released and the Treasury holds a 10-year Note auction. The PPI will come at 8:30 AM ET, helping us to track inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. The auction is an afternoon event and can cause movement in bonds and mortgage rates during afternoon trading.
Overall, Thursday is the best candidate for most important day of the week due to the Consumer...
By James Brooks
The bond market is down 1/32 (2.95%), which should keep Raleigh Area mortgage rates unchanged.
Today?s only economic news was a major release- April?s Employment report. The Labor Department announced early this morning that the U.S. unemployment rate fell from 4.1% to 3.9% last month, its lowest level since December 2000. They also said that 164,000 new jobs were added to the economy during the month, falling short of the 190,000 that was forecasted. The third headline number we watch is the average hourly earnings that came in .15% higher than March?s level. That equates to 0.1% or 0.2%, depending if you believe in rounding up or not. That is relevant because analysts were expecting to see a 0.2% increase. Rising wages are bad news for bonds and mortgage rates, so the lower the number, the more favorable the data is for mortgage pricing.
Overall, the report is fairly good news for the bond and mortgage markets, but not great news. The lower unemployment rate is good,...
With home prices rising again this year, some are concerned that we may be repeating the 2006 housing bubble that caused families so much pain when it collapsed. Today’s market is quite different than the bubble market of twelve years ago. There are four key metrics that explain why:
- Home Prices
- Mortgage Standards
- Mortgage Debt
- Housing Affordability
1. HOME PRICES
There is no doubt that home prices have reached 2006 levels in many markets across the country. However, after more than a decade, home prices should be much higher based on inflation alone.
Frank Nothaft is the Chief Economist for CoreLogic (which compiles some of the best data on past, current, and future home...
By James Brooks
The bond market is down 5/32 (2.96%), which should push Raleigh Area mortgage rates to increase by approximately .125 of a discount point.
April's Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) manufacturing index was today?s big release, coming in at 57.3. This was a lower reading than the 58.6 that was expected and a noticeable decline from March?s 59.3, indicating fewer surveyed manufacturing executives felt business improved during the month than did in March. That is a sign of weaker manufacturing activity that is good news for bonds and mortgage rates. Unfortunately, a secondary reading within the data that is related to costs showed its highest level in 7 years. This raised inflation concerns that prevented a positive reaction to the headline reading.
Tomorrow has two events that may affect mortgage rates. April?s ADP Employment report is set for release at 8:30 AM ET tomorrow morning, which has the potential to cause some movement in the markets if it shows much stronger...
By James Brooks
The bond market is up 3/32 (2.97%), which with gains late Friday should improve push Raleigh Area mortgage rates to lower by approximately .125 of a discount point.
March's Personal Income and Outlays data kicked off this week?s calendar at 8:30 AM ET this morning. The Commerce Department announced a 0.3% rise in income and a 0.4% increase in spending. The income reading was slightly lighter than forecasts of 0.4%, but the spending reading pegged expectations. Also, the inflation index within the report that the Fed uses showed no surprises. Because the income increase fell short of forecasts, meaning consumers had less money to spend, we can consider the data neutral to slightly favorable for mortgage rates.
The rest of the week brings us the release of five more pieces of economic data that are likely to influence mortgage rates in addition to an FOMC meeting. Tomorrow has one of those scheduled and it is one of the week?s two major releases. April's Institute for Supply...
By James Brooks
The bond market is up 4/32 (2.96%), which should improve Raleigh Area mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point.
Yesterday?s 7-year Treasury Note auction went a little better than Wednesday?s 5-year Note sale did. Several benchmarks pointed towards a decent level of interest in the securities. The bond market had little reaction when results were posted though, meaning the sale had no impact on mortgage rates.
The first of this morning?s three economic reports was the extremely important initial GDP reading for the 1st quarter. It revealed that the economy grew at a 2.3% annual pace during the first three months of the year. This was a faster rate than the 2.1% that analysts had expected, making the data bad news for bonds and mortgage rates. That is because bonds tend to thrive in weaker economic conditions while stocks are more appealing during better economic growth.
Also at 8:30 AM was the release of the 1st Quarter Employment Cost Index (ECI). It showed...
