No Change In Today's Mortgage Rates 12-5-2017
By James Brooks
The bond market is down 2/32 (2.39%), which should keep Raleigh area mortgage rates unchanged.
There is nothing of importance set for release today, so if we see an intraday move in mortgage rates it likely will be a result of strength or weakness in stocks. As long as stocks remain near current levels, we should see mortgage rates follow suit.
Tomorrow has two pieces of economic data that we will be watching. The first is the ADP Employment report for November at 8:15 AM ET, which has the potential to cause some movement in the markets if it shows much stronger or weaker numbers. This report tracks changes in private-sector jobs of the company's clients that use them for payroll processing. While it does draw attention, it is my opinion that it is overrated and is not a true reflection of the broader employment picture. It also is not very accurate in predicting results of the monthly government report that follows a couple days later. Still, because we sometimes see a noticeable reaction to the report, it is on this week's calendar. Analysts are expecting to see 190,000 new private-sector payrolls last month.
The second report of the day will be revised 3rd Quarter Productivity numbers at 8:30 AM ET. This index is expected to show a small upward revision from the preliminary reading of worker productivity. Higher levels of productivity are thought to allow the economy to expand without inflationary pressures rising. This is good news for the bond market because economic growth itself isn't necessarily bad for the bond market. It's the conditions around an expanding economy, such as inflation, that hurt bond prices and mortgage rates. Current forecasts are calling for an annual rate in productivity of 3.3%, up from the previous estimate of 3.0%. The higher the reading, the better the news for the bond market. Although, this report generally does not have a noticeable impact on mortgage pricing, so it will take a wide variance to draw much attention.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now.