Mortgage Rates

You Might Want to Start Thinking About Locking In On Mortgage Rates 2-15-2018

By James Brooks

The bond market is up 1/32 (2.90%), but weakness late yesterday should still cause Raleigh Area mortgage rates to go higher by approximately .125 of a discount point.

January?s Producer Price Index (PPI) was released at 8:30 AM ET this morning, revealing a 0.4% increase in both the overall and core readings. As with yesterday?s consumer level version of this data, these exceeded expectations. Analysts were expecting to see a 0.3% rise in the overall and a 0.2% increase in the core data that excludes more volatile food and energy prices. The results point towards rising inflation, which is the number one nemesis of the bond market. Inflation erodes the value of a bond?s future fixed interest payments, causing them to be sold at a discount now to offset that decline. Rising inflation also allows the Fed to be more aggressive with increases to key short-term interest rates. Therefore, this was today?s bad news.

Also posted early this morning was last...

As Economy Gets Stronger Mortgage Rates Increase 2-14-2018

By James Brooks

The bond market is down 18/32 (2.89%), which should push Raleigh Area mortgage rates higher by approximately .250 of a discount point.

The Commerce Department gave us the first of this morning?s two important releases by posting January?s Retail Sales data at 8:30 AM ET. It showed a 0.3% decline in consumer-level sales, falling well short of the 0.2% increase that was expected. Even a secondary reading within the report that tracks more costly and volatile auto transactions came in well below forecasts (0.0% vs +0.4%). This data indicates that consumers spent much less last month than many had thought. Because consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy and bonds tend to thrive in weaker economic conditions, this was very good news for the bond market and mortgage rates. Unfortunately, traders are paying more attention to the second release of the morning.

That release was January's Consumer Price Index (CPI), also at 8:30 AM. This...

No Change In Today's Mortgage Rates 2-13-2018

By James Brooks

The bond market is up 3/32 (2.84%), but weakness late yesterday will prevent much of an improvement in Raleigh area mortgage rates.

There is nothing scheduled for today that is relevant to mortgage rates. Unless stocks go into a major sell-off again or strong rally, there is no reason to believe we will see much movement in bonds or mortgage rates the rest of the day. However, the possibility of seeing a significant move in stocks is elevated after the recent volatility. Therefore, you may want to keep an eye on the markets if floating an interest rate and closing in the near future.

Tomorrow brings us the first two reports of the week and both are considered to be highly important. The Commerce Department will give us the first with the release January's Retail Sales data. This report is very important to the financial markets because it measures consumer spending. Since consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy, any related...

Surprise Improvement In Today's Mortgage Rates 2-12-2018

By James Brooks

The bond market is up 4/32 (2.85%), but we still should see an improvement in Raleigh area rates by .125 of a discount point.

There is nothing of importance taking place today or tomorrow. The rest of the week brings us the release of six monthly economic reports that have the potential to influence mortgage pricing. Some of those releases are considered to be highly important to the financial and mortgage markets. In addition to the data, we also will be watching the stock markets for direction. The data scheduled this week can make it an active week for the bond and mortgage markets on their own. If we see more of last week?s volatility in stocks, it sure is going to be another crazy week for mortgage rates.

The calendar will start early Wednesday morning when the Commerce Department posts January's Retail Sales data and the Labor Department release the Consumer Price Index (CPI). These reports are very important to the financial markets as they measure...

Slight Movement In Today's Mortgage Rates 2-9-2018

By James Brooks

The bond market is down 7/32 (2.84%), which should push Raleigh Area mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 of a discount point.

There is nothing of importance being released today. We are just seeing more of this week?s extreme volatility in the markets. It is safe to assume that we will get more of the same as the day progresses. If your lender was one of the many that improved pricing yesterday afternoon, then you should see less of an improvement or possibly an increase this morning, depending on the size of yesterday?s adjustment. The net difference in most circumstances should be slightly lower than Thursday?s early rates.

Yesterday?s 30-year Treasury Bond auction was similar to Wednesday?s 10-year Note sale. The benchmarks we use to gauge investor demand showed an average level of interest in the securities. Not overly strong but not weak either. The bond market did react slightly negative just after results were posted Thursday. However, it wasn?t...

Another Jump In Today's Mortgage Rates 2-8-2018

By James Brooks

The bond market is down 18/32 (2.87%), which should push Raleigh Area mortgage rates higher by approximately .375 of a discount point.

Yesterday?s 10-year Treasury Note auction did not go overly well. Average is the best word to describe investor demand in the sale. Bonds did worsen after results were posted, but they were already sliding prior to the announcement. The lack of a strong interest in the securities doesn?t give us much to be optimistic about in today?s 30-year Bond sale. Results will be posted at 1:00 PM ET again. A strong demand in the securities could lead to bond strength during afternoon trading. However, a weak sale could fuel more bond selling and upward revisions to mortgage pricing.

We got a minor piece of economic data early this morning when last week?s unemployment numbers were posted. They showed that 221,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This was a decline from the previous week?s 230,000 and lower than the...

Little Movement In Today's Mortgage Rates 2-7-2018

By James Brooks

The bond market is down 4/32 (2.83%), which should push Raleigh Area mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 of a discount point.

There is nothing of importance scheduled for release this morning. We do have the 10-year Treasury Note auction taking place today. If today?s sale is met with a strong demand from investors, we should see the bond market move higher during afternoon trading. However, a lackluster interest from buyers, particularly international investors, would indicate a waning appetite for longer-term U.S. securities and lead to broader bond selling. The selling in bonds would result in upward afternoon revisions to mortgage rates. Results will be posted at 1:00 PM ET, so any reaction will come during early afternoon trading.

Tomorrow's only data is last week's unemployment update at 8:30 AM ET. This report is expected to show that 234,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week, up from the previous week's 230,000. Rising initial...

Another Surprise Improvement In Today's Mortgage Rates 2-6-2018

By James Brooks

The bond market is down 10/32 (2.75%), but we still should see an improvement in Raleigh area rates by .250 of a discount point.

The day started innocently enough with stocks and bonds showing minor to moderate losses. Then stock selling accelerated rapidly during afternoon hours, causing the Dow to post its biggest single day point loss ever. As stocks spiraled downward, bonds benefited as investors shifted funds to escape the volatility. That led to a huge bond rally and widespread intraday rate improvements from mortgage lenders. Many lenders revised rates lower more than once before the day came to a close. This morning?s bond losses take away from yesterday?s gains, but we are still left with a nice improvement to mortgage rates.

Where do we go from here? That?s a very good question. I don?t think stocks are done yet and would not be surprised to see another noticeable loss before the end of the week. It will most likely be a far cry from yesterday?s loss though....

Surprise Improvement In Today's Mortgage Rates 2-5-2018

By James Brooks

The bond market is up 6/32 (2.74%), which should improve Raleigh area rates by .125 of a doscount point.

There is nothing of importance being released today that is expected to affect mortgage rates. In fact, the week has no important monthly or quarterly economic reports set for release. It is a very light week in terms of events scheduled that are likely to influence mortgage rates, with exception to a couple of Treasury auctions taking place mid-week that often do affect rates.

The first scheduled event will be Wednesday afternoon?s 10-year Treasury Note auction. It will be followed by 30-year Bonds Thursday. Wednesday's auction is the more important of the two as it will give us an indication for demand of mortgage-related securities. If the sales are met with a strong demand from investors, we should see the bond market move higher during afternoon trading the days of the auctions. But a lackluster interest from buyers, particularly international investors, would indicate...

Big Change In Today's Mortgage Rates 2-2-2018

By James Brooks

The bond market is down 15/32 (2.85%), which should push Raleigh Area mortgage rates higher by approximately .500 of a discount point.

We saw weakness late yesterday that caused widespread upward revisions to mortgage rates. This morning?s losses doubled-down on the increases, creating the sizable jump in mortgage pricing.

This morning?s big release was January?s Employment report at 8:30 AM ET. It showed that the U.S. unemployment rate held at 4.1%, as was expected. New payrolls rose 200,000, exceeding forecasts of 180,000 new jobs. Revisions to December and November?s payroll figures took away 24,000 jobs from previous estimates. The variance from forecasts in January?s total and the revisions to previous months are relatively minor and don?t justify this morning?s bond selling.

What appears to be fueling part of this morning?s losses was the average hourly earning?s reading that rose 0.3%. While this was expected for this month?s report, revisions have the annual rate...